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The Many Paths to College Enrollment: Re-Conceptualizing the Transition to College
Traditional college choice models often fall short in capturing the complex paths that today’s student population takes to postsecondary enrollment. This paper identifies the limitations of the predominant frameworks, such as Hossler and Gallagher’s (1987) three-phase model, arguing that they reflect an outdated enrollment-management perspective, which fails to capture the experiences of many students. We propose a new, student-centered conceptual framework rooted in higher education research that better reflects the realities of the contemporary college-going process. Our model consists of six elements: (1) expectations, (2) academic preparation and the development of “admissions capital,” (3) college knowledge, (4) information gathering and application set formation, (5) application and admission, and (6) enrollment. The framework recognizes that students’ postsecondary pathways are often indirect and shaped by a range of individual and contextual factors. Moreover, it allows for interactions among the elements and emphasizes the enduring influence of educational expectations. By re-conceptualizing the transition to college, our model offers a more nuanced lens for researchers, policymakers, and practitioners seeking to understand and support an increasingly diverse student body and address persistent inequities in college access and choice.
Related products: working paper
Traditional college choice models often fall short in capturing the complex paths that today’s student population takes to postsecondary enrollment. This paper identifies the limitations of the predominant frameworks, such as Hossler and Gallagher’s (1987) three-phase model, arguing that they reflect an outdated enrollment-management perspective, which fails to capture the experiences of many students. We propose a new, student-centered conceptual framework rooted in higher education research that better reflects the realities of the contemporary college-going process. Our model consists of six elements: (1) expectations, (2) academic preparation and the development of “admissions capital,” (3) college knowledge, (4) information gathering and application set formation, (5) application and admission, and (6) enrollment. The framework recognizes that students’ postsecondary pathways are often indirect and shaped by a range of individual and contextual factors. Moreover, it allows for interactions among the elements and emphasizes the enduring influence of educational expectations. By re-conceptualizing the transition to college, our model offers a more nuanced lens for researchers, policymakers, and practitioners seeking to understand and support an increasingly diverse student body and address persistent inequities in college access and choice.
Related products: working paper
Empowering Educational Leaders: On-Track Indicators for College Enrollment
As states incorporate measures of college readiness into their accountability systems, school and district leaders need effective strategies to identify and support students at risk of not enrolling in college. Although there is an abundant literature on early warning indicators for high school dropout, fewer studies focus on indicators for college enrollment, especially those that are simple to calculate and easy for practitioners to use. This study explores three potential indicators of college readiness that educational leaders may consider using as part of an early warning system for college enrollment. Using district administrative data, our analysis shows that an indicator based on attendance, grades, and advanced course-taking is slightly more effective at predicting college enrollment than indicators based on course failures or standardized test scores. However, the performance of these indicators varies across different student demographic and socioeconomic subgroups, highlighting the limitations of these measures and pointing to areas where they may need to be supplemented with contextual information. Through event history analysis, we demonstrate that the ninth grade is a particularly challenging year for students, especially those who are male, Black, Hispanic, or economically disadvantaged. These results suggest that educational leaders ought to consider identifying and targeting students at risk of not attending college with additional resources and support during the freshman year of high school.
Related products: working paper | research brief
As states incorporate measures of college readiness into their accountability systems, school and district leaders need effective strategies to identify and support students at risk of not enrolling in college. Although there is an abundant literature on early warning indicators for high school dropout, fewer studies focus on indicators for college enrollment, especially those that are simple to calculate and easy for practitioners to use. This study explores three potential indicators of college readiness that educational leaders may consider using as part of an early warning system for college enrollment. Using district administrative data, our analysis shows that an indicator based on attendance, grades, and advanced course-taking is slightly more effective at predicting college enrollment than indicators based on course failures or standardized test scores. However, the performance of these indicators varies across different student demographic and socioeconomic subgroups, highlighting the limitations of these measures and pointing to areas where they may need to be supplemented with contextual information. Through event history analysis, we demonstrate that the ninth grade is a particularly challenging year for students, especially those who are male, Black, Hispanic, or economically disadvantaged. These results suggest that educational leaders ought to consider identifying and targeting students at risk of not attending college with additional resources and support during the freshman year of high school.
Related products: working paper | research brief
Equalizing Opportunities or Reproducing Inequalities? Tracing the Path from College Prep Course Access to Postsecondary Student Success
Several states have set goals to increase the number of college graduates, leading to accountability measures that incorporate college preparatory (prep) coursework. However, access to these courses varies within and across school contexts, potentially shaping students’ educational trajectories. This study examines access to college prep courses in Texas, exploring how school characteristics predict course offerings and how these offerings predict course-taking. We also determine whether college prep course-taking affects postsecondary attainment within 12 years of high-school graduation. Results show that larger, urban, and suburban schools with higher academic achievement and less economic disadvantage offer more college prep courses. Schools offering more college prep courses see greater student course-taking, particularly among higher-achieving students. Additionally, taking more prep courses is associated with higher postsecondary credential and bachelor’s degree attainment, especially for lower-achieving students. We recommend that practitioners focus on increasing enrollment in existing college prep coursework, then expand offerings as demand grows.
Related products: working paper | research brief
Several states have set goals to increase the number of college graduates, leading to accountability measures that incorporate college preparatory (prep) coursework. However, access to these courses varies within and across school contexts, potentially shaping students’ educational trajectories. This study examines access to college prep courses in Texas, exploring how school characteristics predict course offerings and how these offerings predict course-taking. We also determine whether college prep course-taking affects postsecondary attainment within 12 years of high-school graduation. Results show that larger, urban, and suburban schools with higher academic achievement and less economic disadvantage offer more college prep courses. Schools offering more college prep courses see greater student course-taking, particularly among higher-achieving students. Additionally, taking more prep courses is associated with higher postsecondary credential and bachelor’s degree attainment, especially for lower-achieving students. We recommend that practitioners focus on increasing enrollment in existing college prep coursework, then expand offerings as demand grows.
Related products: working paper | research brief
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