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Jackson, M., & Holzman, B. (2020). A Century of Educational Inequality in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(32), 19108–19115.
The "income inequality hypothesis" holds that rising income inequality affects the distribution of a wide range of social and economic outcomes. Although it is often alleged that rising income inequality will increase the advantages of the well-off in the competition for college, some researchers have provided descriptive evidence at odds with the income inequality hypothesis. In this paper, we track long-term trends in family income inequalities in college enrollment and completion ("collegiate inequalities") using all available nationally representative datasets for cohorts born between 1908 and 1995. We show that the trends in collegiate inequalities moved in lockstep with the trend in income inequality over the past century. There is one exception to this general finding: For cohorts at risk for serving in the Vietnam War, collegiate inequalities were high, while income inequality was low. During this period, inequality in college enrollment and completion was significantly higher for men than for women, suggesting a bona fide "Vietnam War" effect. Aside from this singular confounding event, a century of evidence establishes a strong association between income and collegiate inequality, providing support for the view that rising income inequality is fundamentally changing the distribution of life chances.
The "income inequality hypothesis" holds that rising income inequality affects the distribution of a wide range of social and economic outcomes. Although it is often alleged that rising income inequality will increase the advantages of the well-off in the competition for college, some researchers have provided descriptive evidence at odds with the income inequality hypothesis. In this paper, we track long-term trends in family income inequalities in college enrollment and completion ("collegiate inequalities") using all available nationally representative datasets for cohorts born between 1908 and 1995. We show that the trends in collegiate inequalities moved in lockstep with the trend in income inequality over the past century. There is one exception to this general finding: For cohorts at risk for serving in the Vietnam War, collegiate inequalities were high, while income inequality was low. During this period, inequality in college enrollment and completion was significantly higher for men than for women, suggesting a bona fide "Vietnam War" effect. Aside from this singular confounding event, a century of evidence establishes a strong association between income and collegiate inequality, providing support for the view that rising income inequality is fundamentally changing the distribution of life chances.
Holzman, B., Klasik, D., & Baker, R. (2020). Gaps in the College Application Gauntlet. Research in Higher Education, 61(7), 795–822.
Higher education research has often focused on rates of step completion in the postsecondary pathway and their relationship to college enrollment. Instead of concentrating on levels of step completion, this study explicitly examines gaps, specifically race- and income-based differences in college enrollment and the intermediate steps to enrollment. Drawing upon national- and state-representative samples from the High School Longitudinal Study of 2009, the study uses the V-statistic, a novel approach that leverages the full distribution of enrollment and step completion, to compute continuous measures of race- and income-based inequalities comparable across steps, groups, and states. First, the authors demonstrate that gaps based on rates rather than the full distribution of step completion may lead to slightly different conclusions. Second, among the steps they analyze, it appears that gaps in academic qualifications are largest, even larger than gaps in college enrollment itself. Finally, through regression analysis, the authors show that gaps in academic qualifications and gaps in taking a college entrance exam are the strongest predictors of gaps in enrollment selectivity. The authors conclude that policymakers and practitioners interested in closing college enrollment gaps ought to identify interventions that can close gaps, in addition to levels, early in the postsecondary pathway.
Related products: policy brief
Higher education research has often focused on rates of step completion in the postsecondary pathway and their relationship to college enrollment. Instead of concentrating on levels of step completion, this study explicitly examines gaps, specifically race- and income-based differences in college enrollment and the intermediate steps to enrollment. Drawing upon national- and state-representative samples from the High School Longitudinal Study of 2009, the study uses the V-statistic, a novel approach that leverages the full distribution of enrollment and step completion, to compute continuous measures of race- and income-based inequalities comparable across steps, groups, and states. First, the authors demonstrate that gaps based on rates rather than the full distribution of step completion may lead to slightly different conclusions. Second, among the steps they analyze, it appears that gaps in academic qualifications are largest, even larger than gaps in college enrollment itself. Finally, through regression analysis, the authors show that gaps in academic qualifications and gaps in taking a college entrance exam are the strongest predictors of gaps in enrollment selectivity. The authors conclude that policymakers and practitioners interested in closing college enrollment gaps ought to identify interventions that can close gaps, in addition to levels, early in the postsecondary pathway.
Related products: policy brief
Holzman, B., Lewis, B., Zhao, J., & Ma, H. (2026). Who Lives in a STEM Desert? Educational Researcher, 55(6), 407–410.
STEM deserts, similar to education deserts, are rural, suburban, and urban areas where students have limited access to school-based STEM curriculum and coursework opportunities. Using administrative data from the Houston Independent School District following a state policy change to high-school graduation requirements, this study develops measures of STEM deserts and identifies the students most likely to live in them. Findings reveal that Black and Asian/Pacific Islander students, students from non-English-speaking households, and those from lower-socioeconomic neighborhoods are disproportionately likely to live in STEM deserts compared to White students, students from English-speaking households, and those from higher-socioeconomic neighborhoods.
Related products: preprint | research briefs
Summer Melt and the Postsecondary Pathway
Summer melt describes the phenomenon of graduates who appear ready for college opting not to enroll after high school, often because of challenges arising during the summer. Using the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002, this study situates summer melt within the broader college-choice process by comparing summer melters with students who follow through on their intentions, those who never intend to enroll, and those who enroll without prior intent. Socioeconomic differences in summer melt are closely tied to earlier disparities in progressing toward college intent, and summer melters’ academic and behavioral patterns across high school vary more than those of college-intending enrollees. These results highlight the value of viewing summer melt as one point among several at which students reconsider their postsecondary plans, as well as the need for conceptual models that incorporate ongoing, rather than discrete, decision-making in the transition to college.
Related products: preprint
STEMming Opportunity: High-School Majors and the Persistence of Tracking
Purpose: Texas House Bill 5 replaced tiered graduation plans with endorsements, curricular concentrations similar to high-school majors. Although intended to broaden student access and choice while aligning coursework with college and career pathways, the STEM endorsement may function as a new form of tracking. Drawing on theories of tracking and detracking, this study examines which students complete the STEM endorsement and how completion relates to postsecondary destinations. Research Methods: We combine a content analysis of Texas college-admissions requirements with administrative data from the Houston Independent School District. Logistic and multinomial logistic regression models estimate predictors of STEM endorsement completion and college choice, while nonlinear variance decomposition analyses assess how differences in student background characteristics explain STEM–non-STEM differences in college enrollment. Findings: The STEM endorsement closely aligns with coursework recommended or required by selective four-year institutions. Students with stronger academic preparation are substantially more likely to complete the STEM endorsement. Although STEM completion is positively associated with selective college enrollment, this relationship is largely explained by differences in academic characteristics, particularly GPA and SAT scores. Implications: The findings suggest that the STEM endorsement functions less as a pathway for expanding opportunity than as a marker of academic differentiation. As a surface-level policy reform, the endorsement system appears to reorganize rather than eliminate tracking by concentrating academically advantaged students in the curricular pathway most aligned with selective college admissions.
Related products: preprint | research briefs
Purpose: Texas House Bill 5 replaced tiered graduation plans with endorsements, curricular concentrations similar to high-school majors. Although intended to broaden student access and choice while aligning coursework with college and career pathways, the STEM endorsement may function as a new form of tracking. Drawing on theories of tracking and detracking, this study examines which students complete the STEM endorsement and how completion relates to postsecondary destinations. Research Methods: We combine a content analysis of Texas college-admissions requirements with administrative data from the Houston Independent School District. Logistic and multinomial logistic regression models estimate predictors of STEM endorsement completion and college choice, while nonlinear variance decomposition analyses assess how differences in student background characteristics explain STEM–non-STEM differences in college enrollment. Findings: The STEM endorsement closely aligns with coursework recommended or required by selective four-year institutions. Students with stronger academic preparation are substantially more likely to complete the STEM endorsement. Although STEM completion is positively associated with selective college enrollment, this relationship is largely explained by differences in academic characteristics, particularly GPA and SAT scores. Implications: The findings suggest that the STEM endorsement functions less as a pathway for expanding opportunity than as a marker of academic differentiation. As a surface-level policy reform, the endorsement system appears to reorganize rather than eliminate tracking by concentrating academically advantaged students in the curricular pathway most aligned with selective college admissions.
Related products: preprint | research briefs
Holzman, B., & Hanson, V. S. (2020). "Summer Melt and Free Application for Federal Student Aid Verification." Houston Education Research Consortium, Rice University.
Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) verification and its role in summer melt is examined in this study. Summer melt is when high school seniors who appear ready to go to college the fall following graduation do not enroll. The study revealed one-third of Houston Independent School District (HISD) college-intending students were flagged for FAFSA verification, and racial and ethnic minorities were especially at risk of verification. The study also found one-in-four college-intending students experienced summer melt and did not attend college by November 1st of the fall semester after completing high school. In line with prior research, FAFSA verification increased the likelihood of summer melt by six percentage points. The study also showed 26 percent of students who experienced summer melt enrolled in college during a later term but still within two years of high school graduation. Students flagged for FAFSA verification were five percentage points more likely to delay their college enrollment than students who were not flagged for verification. Overall, results suggested reducing FAFSA verification and/or providing support to students and families managing the process might be a way to improve college enrollment rates and reduce summer melt. Moreover, some students who experienced summer melt did attend college; they just did so at a later date.
Related products: working paper in progress
Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) verification and its role in summer melt is examined in this study. Summer melt is when high school seniors who appear ready to go to college the fall following graduation do not enroll. The study revealed one-third of Houston Independent School District (HISD) college-intending students were flagged for FAFSA verification, and racial and ethnic minorities were especially at risk of verification. The study also found one-in-four college-intending students experienced summer melt and did not attend college by November 1st of the fall semester after completing high school. In line with prior research, FAFSA verification increased the likelihood of summer melt by six percentage points. The study also showed 26 percent of students who experienced summer melt enrolled in college during a later term but still within two years of high school graduation. Students flagged for FAFSA verification were five percentage points more likely to delay their college enrollment than students who were not flagged for verification. Overall, results suggested reducing FAFSA verification and/or providing support to students and families managing the process might be a way to improve college enrollment rates and reduce summer melt. Moreover, some students who experienced summer melt did attend college; they just did so at a later date.
Related products: working paper in progress
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